Prediction methods will be developed through a cycle of designing, implementing, applying and evaluating prediction systems (see figure). Interactions between workpackages, and with the user community that informs all activity in the project, are key to the plan. This requires close research collaborations to ensure that new developments are relevant, that methods are applied appropriately, and that results are interpreted correctly. Whilst important progress will be made within workpackages, it is the workpackage interactions that are likely to produce the most significant advances.
These closely related measures of extremes have been chosen because they are critical inputs to assessments of water resource and sustainability of living in large cities, and are a useful benchmark for decadal / near term prediction system and uncertainties, as they are better understood than some more localized variables, e.g. daily extreme rainfall causing flooding
The workpackages focussing specifically on prediction methods are:
Lead: Lenny Smith (LSE)
Contributing: Mat Collins (MOHC)
Role: to work directly with users and with other WPs to develop new approaches to the design of ensemble prediction systems that focus on information content and utility.
Lead: Chris Ferro (Exeter) Contributing: David Stephenson (Exeter), Simon Tett (Edinburgh)
Role: to develop new methods for evaluating climate and impacts predictions, and to support the use of these methods to evaluate the predictions produced by other WPs.
Lead: Myles Allen (Oxford)
Contributing: Mat Collins (Hadley Centre)
Role: to work with other WPs in implementing uncertainty analyses and prediction systems and to conduct novel uncertainty analysis climate variables for AR5.